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Mr FnG weather 2017

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  • Mr FnG weather 2017

    Hurricane season starts with nobody in charge at FEMA or NOAA
    http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/the-bu...r-noaa/2325887

  • #2
    https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/cs...rricane-season

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    • #3
      Quite some nasty storms about to impact the Minneapolis-St. Paul area. This looks to be a heavy wind damage event
      Watch the gulf. Models have a storm 180 hrs out. Wind shear will most likely kill this but both sides of the gulf get rain

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      • #4
        A dangerously intense heat wave will grip the Southwest U.S. this weekend and may persist through next week. The NWS has already plastered much of the region with excessive heat warnings. A strong ridge of high pressure, expected to rank among the Southwest's hottest on record at upper levels, will pave the way for this prolonged heat wave. The all-time hottest surface temperature records for Las Vegas, Phoenix, Tucson and Needles may be challenged, as temperatures soar to 115° - 125° Sunday through Thursday next week. The most intense heat is expected Monday through Wednesday, with 120° predicted by Weather Underground for Phoenix on Tuesday. Extreme heat will also extend northwest across the highly populated Central Valley of California

        Two tropical waves—one in the western Caribbean, the other in the central tropical Atlantic—both have potential to grow into tropical storms over the next 5 or 6 days. It’s not so uncommon to get a named storm in the Atlantic during June—last year brought us Colin and Danielle, the earliest C and D storms on record—but it’s remarkable to have two potential tropical cyclones at the same time during mid-June. The next two names on the list of Atlantic storms for 2017 are Bret and Cindy.https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/tw...rming-atlantic

        best models for tropical storm genesis—the ECMWF, GFS, and UKMET—have been in impressive agreement for several days that the Western Caribbean wave will eventually become a tropical cyclone. Of the 0Z Friday ensembles, about 80% call for a tropical depression by Wednesday, and roughly half bring the system to tropical storm strength. None of the ensemble members bring the system to hurricane strength, although we can’t rule out that possibility just yet.

        Where the system ends up going once it’s in the Gulf will hinge on the interaction early next week between an upper-level low pressure trough moving through the eastern U.S. and a very strong ridge of high pressure developing in the Southwest. If the trough moves more slowly, it would increase the odds of a landfall toward the central Gulf Coast, as depicted by the 06Z run of the GFS model (see Figure 3 below), whereas a faster trough motion could allow ridging to steer the system toward the Texas or Mexican coast. Any landfall on the Gulf Coast would likely be no sooner than midweek.

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        • #5
          Models agree that 93L is unlikely to become a hurricane, but the system is large and moist and will be capable of producing extremely heavy rain. There remains considerable disagreement on where this potential depression or tropical storm will track. The ECWMF and its ensemble members have been fairly consistent in tracking 93L over or around the Yucatan Peninsula and toward the western Gulf, where it would make landfall in South Texas or Mexico. The 12Z Saturday ECMWF run brings the center near Brownsville on Thursday, most likely as a weak tropical storm.

          The GFS has shown less internal consistency, but it has tended to track 93L toward the central Gulf Coast, in response to a more vigorous upper-level trough in the GFS moving through the eastern U.S. The 12Z Saturday run of the GFS brings 93L inland near Mobile, AL, after several days of slow motion just offshore. A slowdown in forward speed would be plausible given the departure of the eastern trough and the weakening of steering currents. If 93L does move as gradually as shown by the GFS, we can expect torrential rains—perhaps 10” to 20”—somewhere along the central Gulf Coast, regardless of whether 93L is a wave, depression, or named storm. Likewise, torrential rain could be expected over South Texas if the ECMWF is correct, although the amounts would probably be less than for the GFS track given that 93L would likely be moving at a more steady clip around the intense dome of high pressure producing record heat in the Southwest U.S.

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          • #6
            While residents of the central Gulf Coast prepare for a major flood threat (see below), the second tropical storm of the 2017 Atlantic season is heading for an encounter with Trinidad and Venezuela. Christened at 5:00 pm EDT Monday by the NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, Tropical Storm Bret is only the third tropical storm in 167 years of recordkeeping to form before July 1 in the Main Development Region of the tropical Atlantic east of the Antilles A serious rain/flood threat for the central Gulf Coast

            The much bigger tropical concern in the Atlantic is from a system that hasn’t yet become a depression. Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone 3 were launched on Monday afternoon. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Intracoastal City, Louisiana, to the mouth of the Pearl River, and a tropical storm watch from west of Intracoastal City to High Island, Texas (see Figure 3 below). Although the Alabama and Florida Panhandle coasts are not included in the watch, residents there should be aware of the potential for extremely heavy rain even if the potential tropical storm remains well to the west.

            (Procedural note: NHC's new Potential Tropical Cyclone advisories, which debuted on Sunday, provide more detailed guidance on systems that are not yet at depression strength but that have a chance of intensifying and bringing tropical storm or hurricane conditions to land areas within 48 hours. Potential tropical cyclones will be assigned numbers as part of the same chronological list that includes tropical depressions. See the related NHC document for more on this new product.)

            At 5:00 pm EDT Monday, the poorly structured center of circulation associated with PTC 3 was located over the southeast Gulf of Mexico, about 300 miles south of the mouth of the Mississippi River. Showers and thunderstorms (convection) were blossoming on Monday afternoon across the eastern Gulf ahead of the low, as shown in the satellite image at top. Nearly all of the convection was east of the circulation; this is a common feature of early-season tropical cyclones in the eastern Gulf.

            NHC’s official outlook for PTC3 calls for it to become a tropical storm by Tuesday evening, in which case it would be named Cindy. Having two simultaneous tropical storms in June would be very unusual, though not unprecedented. According to Dr. Phil Klotzbach, the Atlantic has seen at least two simultaneous tropical storms in June three times during the 20th century: in 1909, 1959, and 1968.

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            • #7

              Our three reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone formation--the European, GFS and UKMET models--were not predicting any new Atlantic tropical cyclones over the next five days with their 0Z Friday runs. NHC was also cold to the idea of Atlantic tropical cyclone formation in their 8 am EDT Friday 5-day Tropical Weather Outlook. The 0Z Thursday run of the GFS model had been predicting the potential development of a new tropical depression early next week in the far Eastern Atlantic from a tropical wave expected to move off the coast of Africa on Sunday. However, the 0Z Friday morning run of the model has backed off on that prediction. Nevertheless, the formation of Tropical Storm Bret early this week from an African tropical wave shows that we need to be watching these tropical waves over the coming weeks.

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              • #8
                Texas watch https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/hu...ey-regenerates South Florida lots of rain

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                • #9
                  This will be bad NOLA will have flooding also but Texas will
                  have epic flooding

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                  • #10
                    I'm in Galveston and it's all good so far.

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by TEXFESTFAN View Post
                      I'm in Galveston and it's all good so far.
                      Sincerely meant "Good Luck".
                      Our villages hurricane season began in earnest this week. It will last until above second week of October. Never a question of "if" just how many and how strong.
                      Ride 'me Cowboy. Stay safe.

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by TEXFESTFAN View Post
                        I'm in Galveston and it's all good so far.
                        Good luck, keep safe

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                        • #13
                          Everybody down there, do what is necessary to be safe. Board up, get out. Be careful. Floods are bad. It's just stuff. Take care of yourselves and each other.

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                          • #14
                            Houston, Texas
                            Worse storm in the history of Houston. At 4PM Sunday 8/27 we are still only halfway. All Houston freeways are impassable. It has been raining nonstop for 24 hours. The next 3 days forecast 100% rain.
                            We are high & dry in Kingwood. (Northeast Houston). Other folks not so lucky. Hurricane Harvey is not moving out of the area. Both airports are shutdown. Hobby Airport shutdown until Wed. Bush IAH might open tomorrow but I doubt it. Grocery stores, gas station, drugstore, 97% of all stores are closed. Several tornadoes in the area. 100+ tornado warnings.

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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Fred (Texas JF Fanatic) View Post
                              Houston, Texas
                              Worse storm in the history of Houston. At 4PM Sunday 8/27 we are still only halfway. All Houston freeways are impassable. It has been raining nonstop for 24 hours. The next 3 days forecast 100% rain.
                              We are high & dry in Kingwood. (Northeast Houston). Other folks not so lucky. Hurricane Harvey is not moving out of the area. Both airports are shutdown. Hobby Airport shutdown until Wed. Bush IAH might open tomorrow but I doubt it. Grocery stores, gas station, drugstore, 97% of all stores are closed. Several tornadoes in the area. 100+ tornado warnings.
                              Best to you, Fred.

                              Stay high & dry and hopefully the worst is already passed over...

                              MM

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