Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

ODDS OF A 2021 NOJF?

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • ODDS OF A 2021 NOJF?

    I give it 25%-75% against happenin....

  • #2
    No way to apply Nate Silver-like odds to this - there weren't any big music festivals during the last major U.S. pandemic and there aren't any useful polls to measure the public's confidence in future large-gathering events. But the variables effecting the 2021 Fest will be very telling:
    • If Trump prevails in November, expect restrictions on sporting events to lift, and, by extension, inside music clubs and music festivals could follow... a boon to the hardy, healthy GOP-rally, NASCAR, demolition derby, demographic. Expect a few conscientious/concerned fest-goers to sit 2021 out under this model.
    • if the election goes in a Biden direction, tamping down the continuing initial COVID outbreak would likely take 60-90 days even if the new administration hit the ground running in January. Without a vaccine, and/or early access to a successful vaccine injection (two stages), the practical exposure risks to non-vaccinated Fest-goers would still be a serious consideration.
    • If you think the election is coming on us fast, put yourself in the Festival organizers' shoes and ask yourself if any artist appearance contracts signed between now and March will still be binding come the 2nd weekend in April. On the good side, sign'em up! Literally every artist approached will be available either weekend.
    • Assuming the pandemic, or risks, magically ended by year's end, would the majority of the typical traveling Fest attendees have the free time & financial means to attend a 2021 Fest?
    To continue with the Nate Silver metaphor, there are two rubicons (Floridas) that will skew all probability models - an effective vaccine release and the election.

    I'll always put going to Jazzfest at the top of my must-attend list, but lately I find myself thinking about maybe taking the Fest nest-egg and experiencing something new, or re-visiting favorite memories. I never considered the macabre, or morbid, import of the expression "bucket list" before this summer. Sure we all use it, jokingly, to illustrate the rare unobtainium of festivals, tourism spots, or meals, but this is the first time I've thought about what I'd actually want to see before it was no longer an option. Now would be a good time for a statistics joke.

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by duende View Post
      Now would be a good time for a statistics joke.
      73% of all statistics are made up.

      Comment


      • #4
        There are three kinds of liars. Liars,dirty rotten stinking liars and statisticians

        Comment


        • #5
          You've got to factor in the idiotic Mayor of New Orleans. She has New Orleans still in Phase 2 of Louisiana's covid-19 recovery plan, while the rest of the state moved into Phase 3 last week. Still no bars open and live music isn't allowed indoors in New Orleans

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by zzupschuck View Post
            You've got to factor in the idiotic Mayor of New Orleans. She has New Orleans still in Phase 2 of Louisiana's covid-19 recovery plan, while the rest of the state moved into Phase 3 last week. Still no bars open and live music isn't allowed indoors in New Orleans
            I live here and totally agree with how she is handling things. They want to see what happens with the schools being opened before opening bars back up. The last time they opened up bars cases went way up and stupidity ensued.

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by zzupschuck View Post
              You've got to factor in the idiotic Mayor of New Orleans. She has New Orleans still in Phase 2 of Louisiana's covid-19 recovery plan, while the rest of the state moved into Phase 3 last week. Still no bars open and live music isn't allowed indoors in New Orleans
              Why is that idiotic? Makes total sense to me.

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by duende View Post
                [*]Assuming the pandemic, or risks, magically ended by year's end, would the majority of the typical traveling Fest attendees have the free time & financial means to attend a 2021 Fest?
                Yes we have time and of course we have the means. For crying out loud, we just finished paying estimated quarterly taxes on our retirement income (not sure those Trump tax cuts are working) and have had nowhere to spend our dough this year other than the grocery store.

                But unless there's a vaccine, I don't see us packing onto a flight, entering a crowded fairgrounds or indulging in an evening at a nightclub, theater or even dining indoors until this really and truly blows over.

                Sadly, I don't think we apologized enough to Tuggernuts.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by cp_deb View Post


                  Sadly, I don't think we apologized enough to Tuggernuts.
                  Poor guy. He does seem a little torn and frayed lately.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Jim View Post

                    Why is that idiotic? Makes total sense to me.
                    Ask the club owners and musician what they think. Or any business owner that's being hurt by the restrictions.
                    Mayor Cantrell caught a lot of flack because of the big jump in Covid cases after Mardi Gras...and has been taking out on the city ever since. It's time to move on. The mask Take care of yourself and you'll be fine

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by zzupschuck View Post

                      Ask the club owners and musician what they think. Or any business owner that's being hurt by the restrictions.
                      Mayor Cantrell caught a lot of flack because of the big jump in Covid cases after Mardi Gras...and has been taking out on the city ever since. It's time to move on. The mask Take care of yourself and you'll be fine
                      I have talked to some local musicians, some quite popular. They totally understand and do not think it's time yet. The mayor has not been taking anything out on the city. That is absurd. Let's see what happens after the kids go back to school. I'm dying to see some live music but have zero desire to go into a music club to see it. Most of my friends feel the same way. Outdoors maybe if it wasn't crowded.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        There's the question of whether they will be allowed to have a festival by april, and there is the question if it would be financially viable with a lot of people still avoiding crowds. Look at what's happening with movies. Jazzfest can't survive with just 20 or 30% of the usual crowd. I don't think there will be real widespread vaccination by april even if a vaccine starts being distributed in january. So I think the best thing would be for Jazzfest to be planning for October 2021. Maybe not announce that yet, but keep that as a most probable plan. Maybe FQF can happen in May, being a festival that doesn't depend on ticket sales, if things are already safe.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by mateus View Post
                          There's the question of whether they will be allowed to have a festival by april, and there is the question if it would be financially viable with a lot of people still avoiding crowds. Look at what's happening with movies. Jazzfest can't survive with just 20 or 30% of the usual crowd. I don't think there will be real widespread vaccination by april even if a vaccine starts being distributed in january. So I think the best thing would be for Jazzfest to be planning for October 2021. Maybe not announce that yet, but keep that as a most probable plan. Maybe FQF can happen in May, being a festival that doesn't depend on ticket sales, if things are already safe.
                          Good points. I like this approach.


                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Any chance that the Rolling Stones will be the BNA ?

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by 20/20 View Post
                              Any chance that the Rolling Stones will be the BNA ?
                              No.
                              Visit my Jazzfest advice site: http://jazzfest.swagland.com/

                              Comment

                              Working...
                              X