ODDS OF A 2021 NOJF?

[20/20]

No.

As usual. Too much Jazz and not enough Rock-n-Roll

[freebo]

jjazznj wrote:

Let's see what happens after the kids go back to school. I'm dying to see some live music but have zero desire to go into a music club to see it. Most of my friends feel the same way.

Which reminded me of a comment I heard from a teacher, who thinks schools are re-opening too soon:
We can't control an outbreak of head lice! How are we gonna manage to control a deadly virus, which can't even be SEEN?

Ahem. As always, your mileage may vary.

I miss FUN. Live music has always been my passion in life. Will I ever get to experience it again? Sure hope so - but I won't say I'm dying to see it...

[jjazznj]

There's the question of whether they will be allowed to have a festival by april, and there is the question if it would be financially viable with a lot of people still avoiding crowds. Look at what's happening with movies. Jazzfest can't survive with just 20 or 30% of the usual crowd. I don't think there will be real widespread vaccination by april even if a vaccine starts being distributed in january. So I think the best thing would be for Jazzfest to be planning for October 2021. Maybe not announce that yet, but keep that as a most probable plan. Maybe FQF can happen in May, being a festival that doesn't depend on ticket sales, if things are already safe.

I would not count on a vaccine to change things all that much. Many Americans will not want it, especially after finding out you need to go twice to get it and it may make you feel a bit ill both times. And then there are the Plandemic nuts who think Bill Gates put some kind of microchip tracking device in there(28% of US adults, 44% of Republicans polled believe this). And then you need to factor in how effective it will actually be and how long it will actually take to be distributed all around this country and then all around the world. Jazz Fest is not just Americans, many artists and attendees come from other countries. Also will there be a second wave this Fall or Winter? I see zero chance that there will be a Jazz Fest next April (or Mardi Gras which will piss off a lot of people here). Later in the year? Who knows. I do hope I am totally wrong about all of this! I live in New Orleans and have not been in a music club in 6 months! I rarely go 2 weeks without seeing a show or a concert or a festival. And it's Fall but not being able to go to a Saints game?

[Zenwinemaster]

Not optimistic. Big leap from where we are now to 50,000 or so people a day feeling comfortable about gathering in close proximity. Would love to see it, but seems unlikely for April/May 2021. And I’m skeptical the economics work if attendance is way smaller. Maybe if it’s all local bands with an all female Rolling Stones tribute band closing out Acura?

[Lollygagger]

You've got to factor in the idiotic Mayor of New Orleans. She has New Orleans still in Phase 2 of Louisiana's covid-19 recovery plan, while the rest of the state moved into Phase 3 last week. Still no bars open and live music isn't allowed indoors in New Orleans

Covid numbers are probably lower in other parts of Louisiana (yes, I could have researched this, but I didn't), and what the rest of the state is doing likely has little bearing on New Orleans. It's the same in New York--parts of the state have opened up to a greater extent than NYC has, but that doesn't mean NYC should move at the same pace.

And for what my opinion is definitely not worth, I don't believe Jazz Fest will be held in 2021--at least not in its usual form. Maybe they can do something virtual. There's things they could do. I realize the two festivals are not comparable, but the New York Film Festival is having drive-in movies--yes, people will get in their cars and drive to locations in Queens, Broorklyn, and the Bronx and watch some premieres. Other screenings and talks and events are virtual. Again, I realize movies and live music are quite different, but it's an example of reconfiguring an event so that it can happen--in some form--in the pandemic.

So I'd like to see them come up with something different that could keep people safe. No, it won't be JF as we know it, but it could be interesting.

[20/20]

Maybe if it’s all local bands with an all female Rolling Stones tribute band closing out Acura?

Lil' Queen could have pulled that off.

[festbabe]

...Maybe if it’s all local bands with an all female Rolling Stones tribute band closing out Acura?

THIS I'd love to see

[HappyPlace]

Covid numbers are probably lower in other parts of Louisiana (yes, I could have researched this, but I didn't), and what the rest of the state is doing likely has little bearing on New Orleans. It's the same in New York--parts of the state have opened up to a greater extent than NYC has, but that doesn't mean NYC should move at the same pace.

New Orleans has some of the best numbers in the state, actually, and has for a while. Orleans is one of only 5 parishes that qualifies to open bars under the governor's rules (> 5% positivity rate and some other things). I live in East Baton Rouge and we are over 10%. And we're having LSU football soon--don't get me started on that.

But the mayor of New Orleans is (correctly, IMO) focused on opening schools and will not open up bars, clubs, etc., before kids are all back in school. At least that's my understanding, so she's very cautious about opening up anything else. You also have to bear in mind that if bars open, tourists will return in droves. If you open bars in Monroe (just to use a random example), people from other places aren't going to flock there. In NO, that would absolutely happen. And that's obviously risky. I agree with your overall point--different places should not all move at the same pace. The severity of covid in a given place is only one thing to consider.

[duende]

Maybe if it’s all local bands with an all female Rolling Stones tribute band closing out Acura?

knowingly or unwittingly, there would be consequences to accidentally restarting Grace Potter's career

[CEfromLA]

Well, I had reservations for last April and those got canceled.
I switched them to October and canceled those.
Now I have reservations for April 2021.

As soon as Dr. Fauci tells me that a vaccine is safe (I will never take the word of a politician that it is), I will stand in line to get it ASAP.
As previously mentioned, there won't be enough vaccine to go around for awhile, but as someone in the over-60 crowd, I suspect we'll have access right after the essential workers and immune-compromised.

We ARE going on vacation in October, but not to New Orleans.
We decided to go to Death Valley instead.
We opted for irony....

[20/20]

knowingly or unwittingly, there would be consequences to accidentally restarting Grace Potter's career

Well with respect to Miss Potter, that flipping of her lengthy locks can indeed become a bit tedious, but we all have our mannerisms. I've seen her a number of times over the years at Lockn' and have enjoyed. I can tell you this, one year she teamed up with Warren Haynes and Govt. Mule to do a number of Fleetwood Mac covers and she out Stevie Nicks Stevie Nicks. She was really quite good.
Of course the Thai-sticks from Thailand that we were doing may have had some small influence. Oops, wrong thread.

[cp_deb]

You also have to bear in mind that if bars open, tourists will return in droves. If you open bars in Monroe (just to use a random example), people from other places aren't going to flock there. In NO, that would absolutely happen. And that's obviously risky.

This makes complete sense to me.

[fichadelphia]

I really don't know what to expect. Whenever Jazz Fest happens in person again I plan to be there. I'd love to be able to plan in advance as usual but I've definitely accepted that my usual planning ahead just isn't going to be happening for while. I'm just going to have to roll with it. Some person recently asked in the facebook group if anybody had heard anything about JF 2021 and I definitely snickered-- really? Anyhow, I said it then and I'll say it again: I won't be making any expensive, unrefundable or elaborate travel plans for awhile.

[Marignygregg]

Those FB Threadheads. They're so cute.

[BostonDavid]

I give it 25%-75% against happenin....

Sounds about right to me.

We’ll see how things go with the schools reopening, football starting, cold weather coming, indoor dining resuming, people getting restriction-fatigued, etc. Even if JF goes ahead in Spring 21 I doubt I’d be willing to fly unless things change significantly. But who knows?