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ODDS OF A 2021 NOJF?

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  • Originally posted by Lit View Post

    Interesting. Definitely not the way it worked here when we got ours.

    Might as well throw away the vaccination stats then; they’re useless if you aren’t tracking who actually got the shots. In all likelihood Louisiana’s numbers are even lower than reported.
    Inexact, but far from useless. I'd imagine the vast majority of recipients gave their real name, and also brought their card back when getting a second dose. They do know exactly how many doses of each vaccine went into arms. There may be a few shots that went to out of state residents, and some LA residents who got doses out of state, and there may be some instances of someone getting a second dose mis-recorded as a different person getting their first. But even with this, my guess is that the overall numbers aren't off my more than 5%.
    Visit my Jazzfest advice site: http://jazzfest.swagland.com/

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    • Originally posted by swag View Post

      Inexact, but far from useless. I'd imagine the vast majority of recipients gave their real name, and also brought their card back when getting a second dose. They do know exactly how many doses of each vaccine went into arms. There may be a few shots that went to out of state residents, and some LA residents who got doses out of state, and there may be some instances of someone getting a second dose mis-recorded as a different person getting their first. But even with this, my guess is that the overall numbers aren't off my more than 5%.
      I think that’s probably a fair assessment as of now. But Fred likely represents greater than 5% of the population who will be increasingly willing to show up for a third shot as John Doe from Anytown, USA, and that means that the number of doses going into arms will be a less-reliable indicator of the percentage of the population that is fully-vaccinated over time if the system encourages double counting.

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      • Originally posted by Lit View Post
        I think that’s probably a fair assessment as of now. But Fred likely represents greater than 5% of the population who will be increasingly willing to show up for a third shot as John Doe from Anytown, USA, and that means that the number of doses going into arms will be a less-reliable indicator of the percentage of the population that is fully-vaccinated over time if the system encourages double counting.
        I would imagine the FDA is going to formally review and rule on Pfizer's request for a booster shot before there are too many people that try to get a 3rd shot. I haven't heard of that being a thing. It may even happen right around the same time they formally approve the vaccines.

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        • I would expect a booster to have had some tweaking to the vaccine to deal with variants, not just another shot of the initial, but I don't really know how that works. As has been mentioned, the non-vaxxers are allowing the virus to continue to spread...and mutate...and that is where they put the rest of us in danger. The longer the virus is kept alive, the more it has an opportunity to mutate, perhaps becoming dangerous to the already vaccinated somewhere down the road. And their showing up in hospitals in numbers may reverse things as we have already seen happen in Los Angeles.

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          • Originally posted by Lit View Post

            I don't think it works that way. They have you in a database and you have to show ID.
            Every state is different. Not telling anyone what they should or shouldn't do but no one needs a 3rd shot booster right now or even a booster for the J&J. Pfizer just wants the govt to pay for millions of more shots.

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            • Originally posted by jjazznj View Post

              Every state is different. Not telling anyone what they should or shouldn't do but no one needs a 3rd shot booster right now or even a booster for the J&J. Pfizer just wants the govt to pay for millions of more shots.
              I'd rather they request it early, given the fact it will take the FDA time to review and approve, and then distribute. Rather than wait until it really becomes necessary, and the process hasn't even begun.

              I think the focus is on getting people fully vaccinated. That is lagging, and Boosters are not essential right now. But with the low vaccination rates, I think Pfizer sees potential trouble on the horizon, if we enter Fall, and Delta is spreading out of control, and infecting enough vaccinated people to be an even bigger problem.

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              • Originally posted by jjazznj View Post

                Not telling anyone what they should or shouldn't do
                WHAT? That's the house speciality here on this thread gar,con.......have you sold out?

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                • Originally posted by SoCalFestLover View Post

                  I'd rather they request it early, given the fact it will take the FDA time to review and approve, and then distribute. Rather than wait until it really becomes necessary, and the process hasn't even begun.

                  I think the focus is on getting people fully vaccinated. That is lagging, and Boosters are not essential right now. But with the low vaccination rates, I think Pfizer sees potential trouble on the horizon, if we enter Fall, and Delta is spreading out of control, and infecting enough vaccinated people to be an even bigger problem.
                  Delta already is spreading out of control, the numbers are going up in every state, especially this one but all 3 vaccines administered here in America seem to be working just fine. We all know what the problem is. I just do not see the FDA approving any boosters at this time.

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                  • Originally posted by jjazznj View Post

                    Delta already is spreading out of control
                    I just do not see the FDA approving any boosters at this time.
                    That is why my game plan is getting my third dose in about 5 weeks. Do I need it? Maybe, maybe not but it is cheap insurance.
                    Will my house burn down in the next 12 months. Maybe, maybe not. Like the vaccine, I hope I don't need it or my home owners policy.

                    Also, once they release an "offical vaccine booster" we will take that also. For now I'm not waiting for an offical booster.

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                    • Vax’d up, hotel and air booked (both refundable) but maybe it’s me living in Florida, I’m losing optimism that a fall JF will happen…just sayin’
                      Having had been paralyzed for a year in the past with GBS, (Guillain Barre Syndrome), it was a tough decision to get the vaccine but I went ahead and got the Moderna back in April. Looking forward to JF2021!!!
                      Last edited by Thraak; 07-17-2021, 03:23 PM.

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                      • Originally posted by Thraak View Post
                        Vax’d up, hotel and air booked (both refundable) but maybe it’s me living in Florida, I’m losing optimism that a fall JF will happen…just sayin’
                        Having had been paralyzed for a year in the past with GBS, (Guillain Barre Syndrome), it was a tough decision to get the vaccine but I went ahead and got the Moderna back in April. Looking forward to JF2021!!!
                        Congratulations on your recovery. That must have been a horrific period of time. Had the Moderna myself. Lots of people that I know or spoke to had some major symptoms. Some said that they would have rather have had Covid ! Not a biggy for me. How did you do?
                        Good luck on the upcoming hurricane season. I'm a bit apprehensive this year.

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                        • Originally posted by Fred (Texas JF Fanatic) View Post

                          That is why my game plan is getting my third dose in about 5 weeks. Do I need it? Maybe, maybe not but it is cheap insurance.
                          Will my house burn down in the next 12 months. Maybe, maybe not. Like the vaccine, I hope I don't need it or my home owners policy.

                          Also, once they release an "offical vaccine booster" we will take that also. For now I'm not waiting for an offical booster.
                          Go for it if you can figure out a way to get it but there is no info anywhere that says that you need it.

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                          • Originally posted by jjazznj View Post

                            Go for it if you can figure out a way to get it but there is no info anywhere that says that you need it.
                            That is one reason I quoted you in my last post. I agree with you 100%.

                            Quoting you again.

                            "Delta already is spreading out of control.
                            I just do not see the FDA approving any boosters at this time"

                            The main number I'm looking at is new cases.
                            June 14, 2021 8010 new cases.
                            July 15, 2021 39700 new cases.
                            That is about a 500% increase in one month.

                            Should I wait until cdc suggest we take a booster shot? I think not.

                            For myself, it is all about risk management. Being proactive with a plan to reduce risk.
                            Like I said, "Do I need it? Maybe, maybe not. "
                            Much better to be proactive and not reactive.

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                            • Originally posted by Thraak View Post
                              Vax’d up, hotel and air booked (both refundable) but maybe it’s me living in Florida, I’m losing optimism that a fall JF will happen…just sayin’
                              Having had been paralyzed for a year in the past with GBS, (Guillain Barre Syndrome), it was a tough decision to get the vaccine but I went ahead and got the Moderna back in April. Looking forward to JF2021!!!
                              Unfortunately I'm also beginning to have some doubts, especially for the shows at night. At least the fest is outdoors. It sucks as this city is really counting on having a big October and it would be a shame if it did not happen due to so many who refuse to get a vaccine which is obviously safe for most people to take.

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                              • Frantic Fred needs to start focusing on miscreants closer to Texas. Three of those ex-patriate legislators from Texas who fled their state to come to Washington, DC carried the covid-19 virus with them. Actions speak louder than words.

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